Global Stress Propagation Monitor
Intervention activelive, 2026-08-21
Policymakers are intervening as market pressure rises.
Pressure remains elevated and policy intervention is active, but broader market confirmation and global transmission remain limited.
Signal confidence is currently moderate because cross-market confirmation and temporal sequence evidence remain limited.
How serious is it?
How much pressure is building?70Pressure is highLong-end Treasury pressure and inflation expectations are adding the most pressure right now.Are markets confirming it?62Limited confirmationOnly one market is reflecting the strain so far, which is not enough to call it confirmed.Is intervention working?74Not yet measurableIntraday data around the intervention are not yet sufficient to measure the market response reliably.Is it spreading globally?56Elevated, not confirmedJapan, credit and global liquidity indicators have not yet confirmed broad transmission.
Where are we on the stress landscape?
The model maps the system according to how much pressure is building, how strongly markets are confirming it and how close conditions are to a nonlinear stress threshold.
Left to right: how much pressure is building. Front to back: how strongly markets are confirming it. Height: how close conditions are to a tipping region. Drag to rotate.
The system is moving uphill and markets are confirming it, though broad global transmission has not yet been established.
Where could the pressure move next?
OilUnder pressureInflation expectationsUnder pressureUS long endUnder pressureUS dollarElevatedJapan / carry stressElevatedGlobal liquidityWatchingWhat changed?
- Intraday data around the intervention are not yet sufficient to measure the market response reliably.
- Global transmission remains elevated but not confirmed; Japan and the dollar remain the important next-stage signals.
What are we watching next?
- US long-term yields
- Can intervention hold them down?
- Dollar
- Is bond stress moving into the currency?
- Japan
- Are FX and rates beginning to destabilise carry positions?
- Global liquidity
- Are credit and volatility confirming broader transmission?