Time left to respond
Not estimated
Needs usable stocks, net depletion and the time to deliver a workable alternative.
Analytical Notions
Scheduled updatesSurface Stress Model
Track physical constraints, economic pressure and financial conditions, with separate evidence for movement, persistence and possible transmission.
Market snapshot: Loading…
Markets: daily · physical sources: weekly/monthly · economy: monthly.
System observations · V0.1
Pressure, buffers and what remains unknown
Each stage keeps its own measurement and date. Read across the system without treating the values as one danger scale.
Loading observations…
Route adaptation diagnostic
Unavailable
Weighted headroom across observed mechanisms. This is not a percentage of lost oil flow that can be replaced.
New source periods
Unavailable
Physical and economy periods advanced since the preceding snapshot. Repeated source periods are not fresh evidence of stability.
Propagation and tipping
Unavailable
Coexisting pressures do not identify a causal pathway or a tipping threshold.
Supply
Unavailable
Three-month production vs recent achievable level · Unavailable
World crude production
Observation period: Observation date unavailable · Monthly
Transport
Unavailable
Comparable crude flow · confidence: unavailable
Hormuz crude route
Observation period: Observation date unavailable · Reported period
Conversion
Unavailable
Utilisation strain vs prior seasonal reference
U.S. refineries · regional proxy
Observation period: Observation date unavailable · Weekly
Buffer
Unavailable
Inventory strain vs prior seasonal reference; days of usable cover not estimated
U.S. distillate stocks · regional proxy
Observation period: Observation date unavailable · Weekly
Distribution
Unavailable
Export-flow strain vs prior seasonal reference; not delivery to all users
U.S. distillate exports · regional proxy
Observation period: Observation date unavailable · Weekly
Economy
Unavailable
Median self-relative inflation signal; not household affordability
0 observed countries
Observation period: Observation date unavailable · Monthly panel · periods may differ
Financial observations · Observation date unavailable
No current core financial reading available · 0/4 coverage
Daily market readings below use the same four-channel comparison. Energy prices and euro FX are shown separately.
What would make this a danger warning?
A percentile says how unusual a reading is in its reference history. It does not give remaining capacity, the chance of a crisis, or a ranking of bottlenecks across stages.
A functional warning needs a named failure boundary, usable buffers, feasible substitutes, response lead times and uncertainty. For example: can fuel inventories cover the shortfall until an alternative supply arrives? These inputs are not yet complete.
The proposed sequence is supply → transport → conversion → inventories → delivery → economic and financial effects. Shared shocks, reverse effects and feedback must be tested. U.S. refinery, stock and export observations do not measure every country's energy access.
Energy response pilot · United States · experimental
Can replacement supply arrive before the buffer is used?
Weekly distillate stocks and flows, covering diesel and heating oil. This pilot describes the U.S. aggregate; it does not measure fuel access in Europe or individual regions.
Usable stocks and replacement supply: what is verified?
Evidence reviewed 2026-10-21. This is a dated research review, separate from the weekly stock refresh.
- Usable inventory and operating floor: unmeasured
- Some fuel must remain in tanks and pipework for operation. A national stock total does not reveal how much compatible fuel can reach a particular user. We found no defensible current national distillate floor in the reviewed sources.
- EIA: operating inventory limits
- Replacement delivery: not confirmed
- Pipeline allocations, compatible product, receiving tankage and a dated delivery schedule must agree. Published throughput is not spare deliverable capacity. A historical voyage duration is not a current end-to-end arrival estimate.
- Colonial operating rules reviewed
Dated response record · Northeast U.S.
DOE announced an exchange offer on 2026-10-21 for up to 315 thousand barrels, with transfers or deliveries scheduled by 2026-11-13. Awarded volume, actual deliveries and first arrival are unverified in this record.
This is a finite regional offer, not a daily national replacement flow. It is excluded from the scenario inputs. Reserve inventories are outside EIA commercial statistics; any eventual commercial receipt must be reconciled before adding an intervention again.
Loading weekly observations…
Downstream response
Financial-market pressure
Core channels under pressure
—
Watch or Elevated · 0/4 observed
Breadth movement
UNAVAILABLE
A complete current and previous reading is required
Financial contagion
Unavailable
Current contagion evidence is unavailable.
Strongest current signals
Incomplete financial coverage
Five core market signals
- Level within rangeNot in the high-level Watch band
- WatchSigns of strain
- ElevatedStronger signs of strain
Crude oil price
Unavailable
US long-term rates
Unavailable
US dollar
Unavailable
Japanese yen
Unavailable
Japan long-end rates
Unavailable
Auxiliary spread indicator
Euro / haven FX
Unavailable
Euro / haven FX is observed separately and does not change the four-channel financial breadth count. Brent is shown above as an upstream market signal and is also excluded from the core financial breadth figure.
Spread through the financial system
Current contagion evidence is unavailable.
This is separate from the downstream breadth reading. High yields in several markets at the same time do not by themselves prove contagion; the model looks for sourced cross-market transmission mechanisms and financial-plumbing confirmation.
What changed since the previous recorded snapshot?
No complete comparison is available. Missing readings are not unchanged conditions.
Confirmation
Do credit and volatility confirm the financial pressure?
Unavailable
VIX and company borrowing spreads provide a separate downstream confirmation check. They do not set the physical flow readings above.
Wider context
Unavailable
Cross-border flow evidence: UnavailablePolicy response: Unavailable
No policy assessment is available.
This context helps interpret the system but does not override the measured physical, economic or financial layers.
Financial-market pressure history
0 recorded days · Up to 30 shownNo daily financial history available yet.
What is driving financial-market pressure?
US long-term rates
Unavailable?Movement unavailable
US dollar
Unavailable?Movement unavailable
Japanese yen
Unavailable?Movement unavailable
Japan long-end rates
Unavailable?Movement unavailable
Euro / haven FX
Unavailable?Movement unavailable
VIX and company borrowing costsUnavailable
Arrows show raw market movements. These downstream financial channels are observations; they do not replace the physical flow model above.
How this model works
What this model is actually measuring
The Surface Stress Model follows pressure through a connected system rather than treating every indicator as a separate warning. The central question is where the constraint sits, how many parts of the system are becoming constrained together, and how much room remains to absorb another disturbance.
The model does not produce a crisis probability. Physical constraints, substitution capacity, economic response and financial response remain separate so a bottleneck can be seen moving through the system instead of being hidden inside one score.
Physical flow
Where supply, transport, refining, inventories and distribution are becoming constrained.
Substitution capacity
How much unused ability remains to route around the current constraint.
Transmission
Whether pressure is appearing further downstream in the economy and financial system.
Progression
How the measured state changes through time, without assuming that co-movement proves causation.
Confirmation
Whether downstream credit, volatility and other evidence support the same stress picture.
Physical and connected-system readings refresh on their own source clocks; financial-market signals refresh more frequently. Current co-observation is not treated as proof that pressure has propagated from one stage to another.
This dashboard shows recorded system conditions and downstream responses. It does not predict when a crisis will happen.
Market update: Unavailable
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